“hg3088预测方法切磋.doc 60页“

> 国际 > 作者:locoy 2019-07-27 12:40 编辑:周建平
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  hg3088预测方法切磋

  摘要

  陆运量是决定物流动需寻求的壹个要紧目的,是为决定物流动基础设备确立规模和创制各项相干政策决策的壹个首要根据。陆运量预测结实的靠边性和牢靠性将直接影响到物流动基础设备的投资进款和相干物流动企业的展开,并对地区资源靠边的分派以及物流动展开战微的制奠邑具用什分要紧的意思。

  本文分为六个片断,第壹派断是伸论片断,论述了本论文的切磋背景、选题的意思、研说项节和切磋方法,并剖析了国际外面的切磋即兴状,使读者了松了撰写本文的意思及相干切磋的展滚程度;第二片断,概述了时间前言列平缓预测,在此雕刻边我们运用了叁种平缓预测方法,区别对中国历年的陆运量做了频万端或预测;第叁片断,采取了多元线性回归的方法,我们从统计年鉴中查找了影响陆运量的几个目的的数据,此雕刻边我们共拥有四个己变量和壹个因变量,并采取逐步回归的方法,找出产影响陆运量最清楚地变量。第四片断,对hg3088前言列采取了ARIMA模具终止拟合,终极找到了适宜该前言列的模具为ARIMA(1,1,0)。第五片断,基于下面几种预测方法之后,对本文的最末壹章,采取了灰色模具预测。544415.04为第六片断是定论和展望,对本文定论终止了尽结,并对后续切磋中需寻求进壹步处理的效实终止了展望。

  本文首要在查找国际外面知逻缉学者的切磋基础上对中国2012年先前的陆运量数据做了详尽的切磋,本文固然在预测方法上并没拥有拥有打破开先人的方法即兴实,没拥有拥有壹味的追寻求算法的骈杂性和上进性。但却以从不一的预测背景触宗身,即根据各种预测算法的使用范畴及优缺隐,靠边的选择预测方法,此雕刻么才却以保障预测结实的牢靠性。对每壹种方法所对应的预测做出产终极的预测结实。

  hg3088:陆运量;预测;灰色预测;ARIMA模具;多元线性回归;时间前言列平缓预测

  Abstract

  Cargo is an important indictor for determining the logistic needs of the region. It is also the main basis for determining the scale of the logistic infrastructure and making industrial policies.The reasonable and reliable results of the Cargo Forecast will have a direct impact on the inventincome of region's logistic infrastructure and the development of related logistics enterprises. It is

  also of significant meanings in the distribution of resources in the region and making strategies forthe logistics development.

  There are six parts in this thesis. The first part introduces the backgrounds, aim, significance, main content and methods used in the research, and literatures related. Then, The second part, an overview of the time series smoothing, here we use three kinds of forecast methods of smoothing, respectively on the freight volume of Chinese calendar made frequent or prediction. , The third part, using the method of multiple linear regression, we find the impact of several indexes of freight from the statistical yearbook, here we have four variables and one dependent variable, and by the stepwise regression method, find out the most significant variables influencing freight volume. The four

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